During the National Assembly session on June 4, 2025, Vietnam took a pivotal step by repealing the longstanding restriction that capped families at a maximum of two children. This policy shift comes as the country confronts a steady decline in birth rates paired with a rapidly aging demographic.
Recent statistics reveal that Vietnam's fertility rate has dropped from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to just 1.91 in 2024, falling significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. In urban centers like Ho Chi Minh City, the fertility rate has plummeted even further to 1.39, intensifying concerns about demographic imbalances and the sustainability of the workforce.
Previously, although the two-child policy was less stringent than earlier population controls, enforcement leaned heavily on educational campaigns. Communist Party members who violated the policy risked losing bonuses and career privileges for up to two years. The government also launched social initiatives urging families to adhere to the restrictions.
The social and economic ramifications are significant. Official projections estimate that Vietnam's working-age population will peak in 2042, while the 'demographic dividend' period is expected to end by 2039. Without an uptick in birth rates, the total population is anticipated to shrink by 2054, potentially leading to labor shortages and hampering economic growth.
To encourage childbirth, the government introduced a package of financial incentives including direct allowances for families with more than two children, extended paid maternity leave, and free educational and healthcare services for children up to secondary school level. Additionally, the Ministry of Health is tightening regulations on gender-selective abortions to address imbalances in the sex ratio.
Demographer Dr. Le Thi Huong from the Vietnam National University described the repeal as a "belated but necessary" move to maintain demographic balance. She highlighted that a cultural preference for sons remains strong in some regions, leading to selective abortions that skew population structure over time. Conversely, some human rights activists argue the policy will only be effective if accompanied by improvements in quality of life—particularly affordable housing and education costs, which remain out of reach for many young families.
Regionally, Vietnam follows the path of several Asian countries that previously enforced strict population controls, such as China and South Korea. China eliminated its one-child policy in 2015 and the two-child limit in 2021, while South Korea relaxed its restrictions years ago amid the world's lowest birth rates. Nonetheless, each nation faces unique challenges. In Vietnam, rural provinces still register higher birth rates compared to urban areas, highlighting spatial disparities.
Vietnam’s government pledges ongoing monitoring of the new policy’s implementation through annual evaluations. Deputy Prime Minister Pham Binh Minh emphasized that lifting the two-child limit is not merely about quotas but represents a comprehensive strategy to prepare educational infrastructure, healthcare services, and employment opportunities for future generations. He added, "The third child no longer needs to be hidden; they are now protected by law and will receive government support."
This new policy will likely undergo scrutiny over the coming years. Should birth rates fail to rise, Vietnam may need to consider more aggressive policy packages or planned migration programs to stabilize the productive-age population.
